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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."