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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.